Tom Brady winning 7 Super Bowls is as improbable as you winning the lottery

Tom Brady’s greatness has been dissected by millions of people, in millions of different ways. The average football fan, by now, knows the improbable tale, of a skinny kid from Michigan drafted 199th overall who became the greatest NFL player ever.

But all the analysis, and glowing stories, and drooling commentators fail to capture just how improbable Brady’s accomplishments are. Set aside his sixth-round status for a second. What is the probability that a given drafted player would go on…


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