Recession calls are growing by the day, but the stock market remains wary of fully pricing in this scenario for the economy.
Despite enduring the worst start to a year since 1970, the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) is still trading 13% above a widely-cited recessionary target of 3,400, which would mark a ~29% decline from the record high reached on January 3, 2022.
In the average recession since World War II, the S&P 500 has dropped 31%.
“Investors and business managers alike tend to play the hand…
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