Tag Archives: recession

The U.S. economy added nearly half a million jobs in March. The Dow Jones industrial average is within 6% of its record high. And U.S. households accumulated roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings throughout the pandemic. Still, despite all the good news, predictions of an impending recession are widespread on Wall Street. Billionaire investors, former Federal Reserve officials, and now even investment banks have repeatedly warned that the economy may hit a wall in 2023. What’s driving the… Source link

LONDON (Reuters) – The macro-economic picture is deteriorating fast and could push the U.S. economy into recession as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy to tame surging inflation, BofA strategists warned in a weekly research note. “‘Inflation shock’ worsening, ‘rates shock’ just beginning, ‘recession shock’ coming”, BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients, adding that in this context, cash, volatility, commodities and crypto currencies could… Source link

A recession is unlikely for 2022, but it’s not 100% off the table, says one prominent Wall Street economist. Nomura Chief U.S. economist Robert Dent told Yahoo Finance Live he sees the potential for a “mild recession.” “When we think of a mild recession I think the best example is probably what happened in 2021, maybe a 2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, a couple of quarters of weak GDP growth,” Dent said. “In terms of time willing, we are most concerned about potentially… Source link

The market’s most closely watched part of the yield curve inverted Friday, and if its record over the last half-century is any indicator, the U.S. could be headed for a recession soon. But others say the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented firefight with high inflation makes this yield curve inversion different from those of decades’ past. On Friday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond ended the day at 2.38%, 6 basis points below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.44%. This… Source link

If the economy is going to be sucked into a pocket of negative quarterly growth, it’s going to be now, warns one top economist. “I think if we have a negative quarter of growth, it’s likely to be the first quarter of the year because that will capture the price shock that is cascading through the economy and the hangover after the very strong finish of last year. I don’t think we are going to have a recession,” said RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas on Yahoo Finance Live. “Right now, if you… Source link

Investors are starting to get very nervous about the market’s near-term direction, and it shows in their actions. “Russia/Ukraine drives fund manager cash levels to highest since April 2020 (COVID), global growth optimism to lowest since Jul’08 (Lehman),” said Michael Hartnett, Bank of America chief investment strategist, in the latest survey of managers from the bank. The details behind the report are ugly. Hartnett notes growth expectations among fund managers is at a 14-year low. The… Source link

(Bloomberg) — Even after one of the worst starts to an equity trading year in history, the market upheaval might just be getting started. Most Read from Bloomberg Ominous signs are piling up that more turmoil is still coming, as key indicators point toward a potential recession. That could deepen the market rout triggered by the Federal Reserve leading a hawkish shift among central banks and war in Ukraine. The U.S. Treasury yield curve has collapsed to near inversion — a situation when… Source link

A recessionary storm could be forming off into the distance amid a host of inflationary and geopolitical concerns, warns strategists at Goldman Sachs. “We now see the risk that the U.S. enters a recession during the next year as broadly in line with the 20-35% odds currently implied by models based on the slope of the yield curve,” said Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. The top Wall Street strategist cut his 2022 U.S. GDP forecast to a growth of 1.75% from 2% previously. Consensus… Source link

Time for a touch of optimism. Recession concerns may be on the rise (see Google search trends below) thanks to soaring inflation, rising gas prices and an unpredictable conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but that doesn’t mean building out an all defensive stock portfolio is the correct move, warns veteran JPMorgan market strategist Mislav Matejka. “We think it is wrong to position for a recession given still extremely favorable financing conditions, very strong labour markets,… Source link

Fund managers are at least thinking a “recession scare” could emerge in the market this year, reflecting one to two months of heightened geopolitical risks, elevated inflation and rising interest rates. “Upcoming recession scare best played via long bonds-short commodities,” said the latest Bank of America fund manager survey. The report reflects responses from 171 participants managing $391 billion in client money. On the positive side, fund managers don’t expect a technical recession this… Source link