Tag Archives: recession

Is a recession already priced into equity markets? The world-renowned economist Jeremy Siegel says it sure looks like stocks have discounted at least a “mild recession” amid this year’s downturn. On Monday, the S&P 500 officially entered bear market territory, dropping more than 3% to a level more than 20% off its January peak. And as recession predictions continue to flood in from both Wall Street and Main Street, some sectors of the market have fared even worse. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is… Source link

A housing bubble requires both a rush of speculators entering into the market and “overvalued” home prices. Oh, and the bust at the end, of course. Unlike the housing bubble that popped in 2008, the pandemic housing boom isn’t underpinned by a frenzy of speculation, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says. While home flipping has certainly ticked up during the pandemic, he says, we aren’t seeing the exuberance of the last bubble. So is the coast clear? Well, not so fast. While… Source link

Dust off your recession preparation handbook you used back in 2008-2009 as the setup exists for a severe recession not too far off in the future, warns one business cycle expert. “The job market is pretty tight, so therefore this could mean a mild recession. I don’t think that’s knowable just yet. One of the things that we are seeing from our research — because we do look at 22 economies around the world — is that there is a setup for a more severe recession. A more international… Source link

Goldman Sachs is kicking a streaming dog when it’s down. Goldman analyst Eric Sheridan slashed his rating on Netflix (NFLX) shares to Sell from Neutral on Friday, sending the stock off as much as 5% in pre-market trading. Sheridan cut his price target on Netflix to $186 from $265. “We have concerns around the impact of a consumer recession as well as heightened levels of competition on demand trends (both in the form of gross adds and churn), margin expansion, and levels of content spend and… Source link

The World Bank warned Tuesday that the global economy faces the risk of dreaded “stagflation,” with this combination of high inflation and low growth tipping some countries into recession. “The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation are hammering growth. For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid,” said World Bank President David Malpass. In its updated Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank slashed its forecast for… Source link

The economy is likely to blow hot and cold for the immediate future, Morgan Stanley’s copresident says, as the economy swings between fears of inflation and fears of contraction. Last week, Ted Pick, head of institutional securities at investment bank Morgan Stanley, joined bankers and investors from Jamie Dimon to Carl Icahn in warning that chances of a recession are steadily rising, marked by periods of a hot and cold economy. “There is a fire narrative, and that fire narrative is… Source link

The majority of Americans feel the U.S. is either in a recession, or headed towards one, according to a recent Maru Public Opinion survey compiled for Yahoo. A bit more than half of respondents say they are now stricter with their money habits. The poll of 1,512 people shows 62% feel the country is already in a period of contraction. Another 19% believe the country is headed toward one. “Based on what they’ve seen, read, heard, or are personally experiencing, two-thirds (62%) of Americans… Source link

The housing market is starting to show signs of a slowdown. If the trend persists, the U.S could see an impact in other sectors of the economy — starting with big-ticket items that go into furnishing a new home. “The housing market is very much a leading indicator of the economy because of the knock on effects through the various sectors, like consumption of durable goods,” Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, told Yahoo Finance. He predicts durable goods such as large appliances… Source link

(Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc. strategists cut their recommendation on US stocks to neutral on the risk of a recession, joining an increasing number of banks in warning of a growth slowdown. Most Read from Bloomberg The market is showing “elements of a deflating bubble” with high uncertainty and the lack of reassurance from the Federal Reserve, strategists including Dirk Willer wrote in a May 27 note. “Given that it will likely take time for the Fed to react to equity and growth weakness,… Source link

As the market’s downward slide continues following a hawkish Federal Reserve statement Tuesday afternoon, economists have downgraded their forecasts for the economy in 2023. “While we don’t necessarily have a recession in our forecasts, we do see the risk of a recession increasing,” said Beth Ann Bovino, Chief U.S. Economist for S&P Global Ratings. “We now have it at about 30%; we see the risk go much larger in 2023 when those cumulative rate hikes from the Fed to attack inflation… Source link