Tag Archives: rate

Consumer prices in December rose the most year-over-year since 1982, feeding into the Federal Reserve’s guidance that it may need to raise interest rates three times this year to combat inflation. But one economist says the last year has taught an important lesson: forecasters have to stay humble, and nimble. That means there’s no guarantee that three hikes will be necessary. “I think there’s some downside risk for the economy, and, therefore, three hikes are not necessarily in the… Source link

The U.S. economy unexpectedly saw a slowdown in hiring in December compared to November, while the unemployment rate improved to a fresh pandemic-era low. The Labor Department released its December jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg: Non-farm payrolls: +199,000 vs. +450,000 expected and a revised +249,000 in November Unemployment rate: 3.9% vs. 4.1% expected and 4.2% in November  Average hourly… Source link

Down goes the U.S. unemployment rate in 2022, contends J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli. “I think by the end of the year [2022] we could see the unemployment rate around 3%,” said Feroli on Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s stunning to see how much the rate has fallen in the last five months. We expect that pace of decline to slow, but it doesn’t take much to get below 4%. Even with a tick up in the labor participation rate which has been depressed over the last year and a half.” To… Source link

U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest clip in nearly four decades last month, underscoring the persistently elevated inflationary pressures in the recovering economy.  The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 6.8% in November compared to last year, marking the fastest annual increase since June 1982. This rate matched consensus economists’ estimates, according to Bloomberg data, but accelerated compared to the 6.2% year-over-year rate from the prior month.  Even… Source link

U.S. employers increased their pace of hiring in October, with declining COVID-19 infections and demand for workers amid widespread shortages helping bolster labor market activity.  The Labor Department released its October jobs report Friday morning. Here were the main metrics from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg: Change in non-farm payrolls, October: +531,000 vs. +450,000 expected, +194,000 in September Unemployment rate: 4.6% vs. 4.7% expected, 4.8% in… Source link

The U.S. economy expanded at its slowest clip in over a year in the third quarter, with a reopening surge in activity quickly beginning to fade. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GPD) on Wednesday. Here were the main metrics economists from the print, based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg: GDP quarter-over-quarter, annualized: 2.0% vs. 2.6% expected, 6.7% in Q2 Personal consumption: 1.6% vs. 0.9% expected, 12.0% in… Source link

U.S. employers likely hired at a stronger rate in September after a disappointing August, with more individuals returning to the workforce as new coronavirus infections slowed and other pressures on the labor market at least temporarily abated. The Labor Department is set to release its September jobs report Friday morning. Here are the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg: Change in non-farm payrolls, September: +500,000 expected,… Source link

The Federal Reserve is not expected to announce any major policy change at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday, but markets could jitter from Fed signals that one could be coming soon. The Fed has signaled that it will likely start pulling back on its extraordinary monetary support before the end of the year. The Fed’s playbook calls for slowing its asset purchase program first, followed by interest rate hikes down the line. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has already communicated to… Source link

Home price growth in the U.S. continued to heat up in June, setting a new record — yet again. Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index posted a 18.6% annual gain in June, up from 16.8% in May — the highest rate in more than 30 years of data. It is the 13th consecutive month of accelerating prices and the third straight month in which the growth rate of housing prices set a record. The 20-City Composite posted a 19.1% annual gain, up… Source link

Goldman Sachs sees the U.S. labor market maintaining its momentum well into 2022.  Economists at the firm led by Jan Hatzius lowered their year-end 2021 unemployment rate forecast slightly to 4.1% on Monday. For 2022, Hatzius and his team projects a 3.5% unemployment rate. If achieved, the unemployment rate would be at a 50-year low as the economy powers back from the COVID-19 pandemic.  Employment at those levels in 2022 would bring the economy to full employment, Hatzius says.  “We expect… Source link