Tag Archives: economic

Dust off your recession preparation handbook you used back in 2008-2009 as the setup exists for a severe recession not too far off in the future, warns one business cycle expert. “The job market is pretty tight, so therefore this could mean a mild recession. I don’t think that’s knowable just yet. One of the things that we are seeing from our research — because we do look at 22 economies around the world — is that there is a setup for a more severe recession. A more international… Source link

(Bloomberg) — A top Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive echoed Jamie Dimon’s pessimistic tone, warning of tougher times ahead amid a string of shocks rattling the global economy. Most Read from Bloomberg “This is among — if not the most — complex, dynamic environments I’ve ever seen in my career,” Goldman President John Waldron said at an investor conference Thursday. “The confluence of the number of shocks to the system to me is unprecedented.” Waldron’s comments echoed the… Source link

This post was originally published on Tker.co. There’s more evidence that the economic narrative could be undergoing a major shift. For months, we’ve been living in an economy in which strong demand has been met with lagging supply, causing inflation inflation to surge. We now appear to be shifting to a phase where demand growth is cooling and supply chains are easing, which should cause inflation to come down. According to Census Bureau data released Wednesday, orders for nondefense… Source link

(Bloomberg) — Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s quarterly revenue rose a better-than-expected 9%, reassuring investors trying to come to grips with the economic cost of sweeping lockdowns intended to eradicate Covid-19. Most Read from Bloomberg But China’s e-commerce leader also refrained from offering its usual outlook for the year, underscoring the unpredictable impact of a Covid Zero policy that’s already cast the country’s supply chains into disarray and hammered consumer… Source link

The tail end of first quarter earnings season has brought two clear investor desires — more cash and less inventory — to the fore. Tech companies are scrambling to gather the former while retailers are stuck with too much of the latter. And in their own way, each industry is telling the market that a paradigm shift brought on during the pandemic has turned into a passing phase of this economic cycle. Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) became the latest retailer to report bloated inventories on… Source link

The overarching narrative of the markets and economy has been one of strong demand meeting lagging supply, a dynamic that has caused inflation to surge. While most signs suggest these trends continue to persist, a handful of anecdotes from the past week suggest this narrative could be changing. Signs that inventories are no longer depleted Supply chain disruptions have been reflected by depressed inventory/sales ratios. In fact, many businesses have been complaining that sales would be stronger… Source link

Top economists and money managers worldwide are warning that rising consumer prices and falling economic growth are combining to form a deadly recipe for the global economy—stagflation. Some 77% of investment fund managers say they see “below-trend growth and above-trend inflation,” a.k.a stagflation, as the most likely outcome for the global economy over the next year, according to a May survey from Bank of America Global Research. That’s the highest percentage seen since August… Source link

On Tuesday, we learned U.S. employers had a record 11.5 million job openings as of March. That’s arguably the clearest sign that the economy is booming, as hiring workers isn’t cheap and most employers would only do it if they didn’t already have the staff to keep up with demand. Currently, there are just 5.9 million people who are unemployed. In other words, there are nearly two job openings per unemployed person. The mismatch means that workers have a lot of options, which means they… Source link

This article first appeared in the Morning Brief. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe Today’s newsletter is by Sam Ro, the author of TKer.co. Follow him on Twitter at @SamRo. You’d think that a big-time investor with exposure to lots of industries would pay close attention to what economists say. Not billionaire investing legend Warren Buffett. At least that’s what he tells people. “We think any company that has an economist… Source link

Markets have stabilized following Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, as if the bombs and missiles won’t derail the global economy. But the economic war running parallel to the shooting war is getting hotter, warranting more attention than investors may be devoting. Much of the analysis of Russia’s war in Ukraine focuses on brutal land battles for terrain as invading and defending forces fight village-by-village in eastern and southern Ukraine. But just as important are multinational… Source link