Overheating job market has raised the risk of recession meaningfully, warns Goldman Sachs

Overheating job market has raised the risk of recession meaningfully, warns Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs isn’t yet ready to join the chorus of its peers in calling a U.S. recession, but it sure appears to be inching closer to that frenzied camp.

“We do put some weight on the historical patterns [of the labor market] and believe that the overheating of the labor market has raised the risk of recession meaningfully. The yield curve seems to discount a recession probability in 2023 of about one in three, roughly double the unconditional average, and we would broadly concur with this…


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