Goldman Sachs isn’t yet ready to join the chorus of its peers in calling a U.S. recession, but it sure appears to be inching closer to that frenzied camp.
“We do put some weight on the historical patterns [of the labor market] and believe that the overheating of the labor market has raised the risk of recession meaningfully. The yield curve seems to discount a recession probability in 2023 of about one in three, roughly double the unconditional average, and we would broadly concur with this…
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